Corona and the Numbers Game (by Emmanuel Hizon)

Photo by Matikas Santos/INQUIRER.net photo.

Apologists of impeached Chief Justice Renato Corona asserted that they are not only winning the battle in the impeachment court but also the one that is being waged in the streets. This assertion stemmed from an alleged 7,000-strong pro-Corona mobilization that was held not long ago in front of the Supreme Court, and of late, a mammoth evangelical rally held at Luneta, which they said outnumbered all previous anti-Corona mobilizations organized by the different anti-corruption groups.

Minority action, one-dimensional

At first glance, the “big” pro-Corona rally held last February 8, 2012 in Padre Faura, which defenders of the chief justice boast and brand as the "true voice" of the public is somewhat impressive. But in retrospect, one can see that the said event is the action of a minority. Of course, the action of a minority is not necessarily wrong, that is not the intention of this piece. Rather, it wants to deconstruct the perception that is being peddled by Corona's spin masters that they are winning the numbers game in the streets.

Games, Politics, and Society

Should Syria continue its costly war against terrorism? Did Myanmar's junta make a good choice in letting Aung San Suu Kyi campaign for a parliament seat? Why did Ahmadinejad decide to disclose new nuclear projects amid apparent opposition of the US and NATO countries on its nuclear program? How will the Philippine Senate vote on the impeachment case of the Supreme Court Justice given the President's obvious preference?

The political arena is defined by such decisions on conflict and cooperation involving civilians, political parties, religious groups, social movements, corporations, and even revolutionary groups. The process with which one can arrive at a rational, well-thought-of decision in politics seems to be overwhelming, given the complexity of individual and social behavior. Several variables have to analyzed, and possible scenarios have to be completely scanned. To make things worse, the cost of wrong decisions can take a toll on lives, properties, and positioning. With all the complexity involved, is there a tool one can actually use to make political decision making easier?

Here comes "Game Theory" - a subfield in applied mathematics that deals with modelling "strategic situations" i.e. situations wherein an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others (Myerson, 1991). Emerging from the field of economics, game theory has been increasingly applied to analysis of political situations - gaining prominence during the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union.

But game theory's application is not just limited in political science or economics. In fact, social morality and ethics may have evolved from social conventions that are, as will be explained later, "Nash equilibrium". For starters, check out the Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal (SMBC) comic below:

  

That DVD Incident, Intellectual Property, and Innovation

This photo is being circulated in Facebook
 by a certain Jerry Ocampo. It may be part of
the systematic demolition job vs. Llamas.

This is related to an earlier article: http://bitly.com/plagiarismculture.

We all know that Presidential Political Adviser and known socialist Ronald Llamas is again the subject of another controversy – that of being caught buying “pirated” DVDs. We all know that he apologized (for putting the government in an awkward position) and that President Aquino announced that he will stay in office despite the protestations of the noisier members of the chattering class. But amid the brouhaha, the question of substance remains unasked: what should be our government’s policy on intellectual property?

Here is an unsolicited advice: the government can continue with the rhetoric against intellectual property “theft”, but it should be lax in its implementation. It’s simple: placate the international community by token efforts to address “piracy” (and even this can be staged – just set up a DVD booth and pretend to smash it in front of international TV) while letting the underground economy persist, providing millions of unemployed Filipinos a lifeline while keeping digital entertainment cheap.

Persisting Problems on the link between Macroeconomics and Microeconomics

Permanent link: http://bit.ly/microfoundations
As a requirement for our macroeconomics class, Dr. Dante Canlas asked us to submit a survey paper on a macroeconomic issue of our choice. I especially took interest on the approach of modern macroeconomics based on so-called "microfoundations" - microeconomic assumptions used to explain aggregate phenomenon. New classical economists see this as the final bridging of macroeconomics and microeconomics, spurring hopes of a single economic theory that would explain both the individual and aggregate economic phenomena. (note how this parallels physicists' dream of uniting large-scale relativistic physics with quantum mechanics). This spurred an orientation in economic research and pedagogy characterized by complex mathematical models capturing "deep" parameters in taste, technology, and expectations.

Recently, the microfoundations approach came under attack after models with "deep" microeconomic parameters supposedly failed to predict and recommend effective policy recommendations to mitigate the current global economic crisis. Even recent Nobel Laureate Thomas Sargent - one of the pioneers of modern macro - is under fire. Why this is so - as well as earlier, almost forgotten challenges to the microfoundations approach - is the subject of the survey paper I submitted. Read the abstract and full text below:

Abstract

The history of economics, for the most part, has been bifurcated between the study of individual economic decisions (microeconomics) and the aggregate economic phenomena (macroeconomics). The attempt to marry the two, via incorporating “microeconomic foundations” or “microfoundations” to explanations for macroeconomic observations and predictions, has so far taken sway a majority of mainstream economists with the failure of Keynesian models to accurately predict aggregate behavior in the presence of government policy. Robert Lucas Jr. posited that people form “rational expectations” of government policy and act so as to render forecasts unstable.

However, there are some persisting theoretical and empirical challenges on this research direction – the empirical instability of macro-models which incorporated microfoundations, the Sonnenschein–Mantel–Debreu result which may spell the theoretical dead end to economic aggregation, the still unresolved Cambridge capital controversies started by the reswitching argument by Italian economist Pierro Sraffa and American economist Joan Robinson in the 1960s, and the missing “representative consumer or firm” that can take into account the behavior of the aggregate. These challenges give the idea that aggregate economic behavior is almost impossible to deduce from microeconomic behavior of agents. Post-Keynesianism – which asserts that long-term expectations are largely determined by non-economic, psychological processes exogenous to the model – is posited as a possible way forward.

To read full text, click:

The Legacy of Dennis Ritchie

This has escaped my attention. Dennis Ritchie, the creator of C and Unix, died on October 8 - his death overshadowed by the death of another pioneer Steve Jobs. Much of our modern information technology backbone - from web servers to operating systems to network software - had been developed using the C programming language. To quote a google Engineer, the internet "is basically a C shop". His legacy, indeed, is incalculable.

main() { printf("Thank you Dennis Ritchie!"); }

No to World Bank in Green Climate Fund!

October 7, 2011

Blog Action Day for Climate Justice

No to World Bank in Green Climate Fund!

The World Bank is recognized as one of the main drivers of the current unsustainable economic and development model that have brought the planet at the edge of collapse. Its internal governance is undemocratic and not representing the voices of the poor countries, which suffer most of the impacts of climate change. Its policies and programs are part of the problem and cannot become today the needed solution. We must make our voices heard and get the WORLD BANK OUT OF CLIMATE FINANCE!

You too can register your opposition against World Bank's intervention on climate change financing. Just follow the four simple steps below:

1. Click here.
2. Look for the 'Sign the Email'-box.
3. Put your name, email, and organization (or country, if signing as individual)
4. Click send.

You may wish to visit the World Bank Out of Climate Finance! website here for campaign details and updates. Please see below a statement of some groups on the matter: