The World according to Friedman: 2012 Geopolitical Analysis on US, China, Germany, and Japan

Clearly, for geopolitics, 2012 did not signal the world's end, but only its tumultuous continuity. Major economies of the world had seen their governments either replaced or reestablished - Barack Obama in the United States, Xi Jinping in People's Republic of China, and Shinzō Abe in Japan. Newsweek issued its last print issue, with the iconic hashtag sounding the death knell to non-online publishing. European Union remains to be stuck in a debilitating debt crisis. The UN General Assembly approves a motion granting Palestine non-member observer state status.

From here.

As we close this year, it is but fitting to listen to one of the world's best geopolitical minds  as he speaks on the state of the world, as well as the history and future of US, China, Germany and Japan. Let us all take a peek at the important insights George Friedman of Stratfor shared to us in 2012: 

The State of the World: A Framework 
By George Friedman | February 21, 2012

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a new series on the national strategies of today's global power and other regional powers. This installment establishes a framework for understating the current state of the world. 

The evolution of geopolitics is cyclical. Powers rise, fall and shift. Changes occur in every generation in an unending ballet. However, the period between 1989 and 1991 was unique in that a long cycle of human history spanning hundreds of years ended, and with it a shorter cycle also came to a close. The world is still reverberating from the events of that period.

On Dec. 25, 1991, an epoch ended. On that day the Soviet Union collapsed, and for the first time in almost 500 years no European power was a global power, meaning no European state integrated economic, military and political power on a global scale. What began in 1492 with Europe smashing its way into the world and creating a global imperial system had ended. For five centuries, one European power or another had dominated the world, whether Portugal, Spain, France, England or the Soviet Union. Even the lesser European powers at the time had some degree of global influence.

Responding to a Planetary Emergency: Global Partnerships and Global Struggles

It is not just because it is 2012. The threat of radical climactic change is now not just a mere scientific proposition. The world's worst polluter, the United States, was the last victim of a severe weather disturbance - hurricane Sandy a.ka. the "Frankenstorm" - which battered New Jersey and several other states in the East Coast. Ironically, it came just weeks after defeated Republic presidential candidate Mitt Romney mocked President-elect Barack Obama for promising "to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet".

The UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP) 18 in Doha, Qatar on the last week of November to the first week of December this year is seen by some as our final hope to save world - our final hope to deeply cut global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent catastrophic global warming. As such, movements around the world prepared as coordinated "Global Week of Action" this week to reiterate its message to the governments of the world - in particular, to the recalcitrant governments of the North.

It is thus fortunate that I was invited to speak on "MDG 8- Global Partnership" for the “MDG Youth Training Program” being organized by MDG Achievement Fund in partnership with UP-NCPAG Student Government. The training seeks to educate university students on the MDGs and provide them an opportunity to draft an action plan for the MDGs. This is a good opportunity to encourage our students to join the Global Week of Action and champion an effective global partnership to stop climate change.

Here is my presentation:

Responding to Planetary Emergencies through Global Partnership, Global Struggles: Climate Justice and MDG 8 on Prezi

You may also click here to download. The presentation is derived from the materials of Jubilee South - Asia Pacific Movement on Debt and Development.

The 15th Petition for a TRO - Netizens vs. the Cybercrime Prevention Act

Today, the Philippine Internet Freedom  Alliance (PIFA.ph) filed a petition at the Supreme Court (SC) for a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) on Republic Act 10175 or the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012. Below is an outline of the substantive arguments in the Petition:

I. RA 10175 violates the right to privacy and due process (Sec 16, 19).
II. RA 10175 violates the right to equal protection (Sec 6, Sec 19).
III. RA 10175 violates the right to free speech (Sec 19, Sec 4(c)).
IV. RA 10175 violates jus cogens norms of international law (Sec 4(c)).
V. RA 10175 is an ex post facto law.
VI. RA 10175 imposes cruel and unusual punishment.

See the full petition below:

Petitioners are : PHILIPPINE INTERNET FREEDOM ALLIANCE, composed of DAKILA-PHILIPPINE COLLECTIVE FOR MODERN HEROISM, represented by Leni Velasco, PARTIDO LAKAS NG MASA, represented by Cesar S. Melencio, FRANCIS EUSTON R. ACERO, MARLON ANTHONY ROMASANTA TONSON, TEODORO A. CASIÑO, NOEMI LARDIZABAL-DADO, IMELDA MORALES, JAMES MATTHEW B. MIRAFLOR, JUAN G.M. RAGRAGIO, MARIA FATIMA A. VILLENA, MEDARDO M. MANRIQUE, JR., LAUREN DADO, MARCO VITTORIA TOBIAS SUMAYAO, IRENE CHIA, ERASTUS NOEL T. DELIZO, CRISTINA SARAH E. OSORIO, ROMEO FACTOLERIN, NAOMI L. TUPAS, KENNETH KENG, ANA ALEXANDRA C. CASTRO

Petition

In the Philippines, the primacy and high esteem accorded freedom of expression is a fundamental postulate of our constitutional system. This right was elevated to constitutional status in the 1935, the 1973 and the 1987 Constitutions, reflecting our own lesson of history, both political and legal, that freedom of speech is an indispensable condition for nearly every other form of freedom. Moreover, our history shows that the struggle to protect the freedom of speech, expression and the press was, at bottom, the struggle for the indispensable preconditions for the exercise of other freedoms. For it is only when the people have unbridled access to information and the press that they will be capable of rendering enlightened judgments. In the oft-quoted words of Thomas Jefferson, we cannot both be free and ignorant.

- Mr. Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno, speaking for the Court en banc, in Chavez v. Gonzales and National Telecommunications Commission, G.R. No. 168338, February 15, 2008.

Log-out. Hit the Streets. Fight for Internet Freedom.

The Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012 or Republic Act No. 10175 threatens our basic rights and freedoms. This law works against ordinary netizens -- bloggers, freelance writers, website owners, social network users. etc. -- and disregards, among other things, our right to privacy and freedom of expression.

To safeguard these rights and freedoms, we, the members of the Philippine Internet Freedom Alliance (PIFA), ask you to leave the virtual world for a while, and join BLACK TUESDAY, a SILENT and PEACEFUL PROTEST against CYBER MARTIAL LAW.

• At 10 am, we assemble at the Padre Faura entrance of Robinsons Manila.
• At 10:30 am, with our central banner saying STOP CYBER MARTIAL LAW and our mouths covered with black tape (to be provided by PIFA), we march to the Supreme Court. Everyone is encouraged (but not required) to bring black cartolina or placards/signs that are all black, symbolizing the silencing of free speech.
• At 11 am, we read our Unity Statement in front of the Supreme Court to let the three branches of our government and the Filipino nation know why this law should be stopped.

Join us netizens, and STOP CYBER MARTIAL LAW !!!

For those who cannot join the demonstration on Tuesday, you can show your solidarity by taking part in the online BLACKOUT -- you can either take your site offline or display on your web sites and social media accounts the BLACK 'STOP CYBER MARTIAL LAW' digital banners / images found at the PIFA Facebook Group Album: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=oa.320745244691388&type=1

For inquiries, please text Kenneth Keng at 0915 790 00 18, or send him a Facebook private message at https://www.facebook.com/kenneth.keng.3 .

You don't believe us? Check this out:

Lean Alejandro (1960-87)

"The socialist man must know how to compute the distance of the stars, how to differentiate a fish from a shark, a mammal from a reptile. He must know how to distill wine into liquor and how to arrive at e=mc^2. He must know how to cook bacon, butcher a pig and roast a lamb. He must be capable of leading armies into battle. He must know how to follow orders, give orders and he must know when to disobey them. He must be able at debate, at lobbying, at open struggle. He must know how to analyze difficult political situations, how to get out of one and how to convince others that they must do the same. He must know how to sail a ship, dig a latrine, construct a pigsty, wash clothes, wash dishes, plan an offensive, plan a retreat, mix martinis, drink martinis, differentiate brandy from whisky, keep quiet, participate, take care of babies, manage a state bureaucracy, soothe pain, comfort the sorrowful, maintain his composure in hot water, when to watch, when to participate, repair appliances, maintain a car, purge revisionists, ride a horse, run from a bull, swim, play tennis, drown gracefully, sink with his ship with honor along with the mice, discuss Mao, debunk Zinoviev, ridicule Stalin, appreciate a beehive, raise chickens, cook chickens, play boogle (respectably), correctly read Mabini, recruit members into the movement, motivate members to struggle, host a party, play at least one musical instrument, be critical, self-critical, honest... The socialist man is the total man. Specialization is for ants." - Lean Alejandro (July 10, 1960 - September 19, 1987)

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Remembering Lean
Antoinette R. Raquiza
19 September 2012
Club Filipino

It is a pleasure to be with old friends and was a real pleasure to read through many of the essays that the Foundation has compiled for the anthology.  A few of the tributes were written fairly recently—but the vast majority of the 36 short pieces were written almost 25 years ago, when some of Lean’s good friends, still mourning his death, were moved to set pen to paper and commemorate their fallen comrade.

Why Change the World?

"In the end, the primary source of this deep anthropological crisis is the thinking that human beings, at their very core, are disconnected from amongst themselves and the rest of its reality."

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Purpose

Don Quixote. Pablo Picasso. 1955

Since humanity appeared in the face of the earth, the earth underwent a massive transformation like any other that happened to it for over four billion years. Humanity’s curiosity transformed rocks to highways, wood to intricate sculptures, minerals to trains, ships, computers and power grids. The emergent order originally imposed by billions of years of natural selection has been replaced by an artificial, intelligent order imposed by the human mind.

A human being’s instinct is to know, to test, to explore. Whether exploring the seas and under it, or staring at the skies and beyond it into space, or traveling deep into tropical forests in order to retrieve an herb (which chemical components one can later discover by observing its cells in a microscope), or detailing the anatomical features of our bodies, or testing the limits of artistic expressions – humanity’s impulse is always to increase its understanding and discover the profundity of the universe, the human psyche, and the subconscious.

For this purpose, we develop tools to one, increase our time spent learning and exploring by efficiently producing what we need for convenient survival (e.g. food, shelter, and leisure); and two, increase our capacity to learn by developing instrumentation and computational tools to aid our process of learning (e.g. microscope, personal computers, the paintbrush). Even as we are connected to the universe, we inevitably transform it in our search for meaning and knowledge. Whether our actuations destroy or preserve the earth, for instance, is subordinated to our unquenchable thirst for understanding and its prerequisite – convenient and harmonious survival. We developed genetic engineering to mass manufacture food; upon learning that it may have adverse effects on health, we also further developed past knowledge on organic agriculture to produce healthy food. We developed hydrocarbons that fuel our four-stroke engines; we also developed ecological restoration techniques to mitigate effects of global warming.

Why Higher Wages Make Economic Sense

Last May 1, the usual arguments of the business sector were unleashed with its central theme: No, business cannot afford wage hike. Beset with high cost and poor business climate, business simply cannot survive added cost of labor. How do we attract investments if we increase wages? Look at China and Vietnam. Didn’t they have a cheap labor policy? Aren’t they getting much more investments than us due to lower minimum wages?

As if the anti-wage-hike position isn’t entrenched enough, an army of economists follows with a recital of the dogma of “labor flexibility”. They say, wage level should be equal to the so-called “marginal productivity of labor” – which is economese for whatever the employer wants to pay them. Labor is supposedly not exempt from the law of supply and demand. Raising minimum wage will only increase unemployment, as it supposedly disallows all voluntary labor wage contracts that pay below the minimum wage. It will also introduce inefficiency in the labor markets, now faced with a "deadweight loss" due to the intervention of the government who will always fail to set prices right.

But why, if they are right, aren’t we attracting investments still? What explains Philippine firms’ low level of competitiveness? Why does unemployment remain high? The response has always been, never mind the workers, that it is not enough. Lower wages a bit more, then we’ll get the investments that would have gone to China. Lax regulations a bit more, and we’ll have more productive factories and viable businesses. Dismantle a little bit more unions, and businesses will be more efficient and will eventually increase their wages in the long-run.

This essay says enough.  It is high time that the government replace the failed “cheap labor policy” with a policy that increases wage income. In a time when self-rated poverty is worsening, prices of petroleum products remain high if not rising, and wages are not enough to even sustain a decent life for a family of five, no other proposal would be more just and fair than a proposal that increases the share labor gets from the economic pie.

The roadmap towards prosperity through increasing labor income is simple: Increasing wages will induce demand and increase labor productivity. Ensuring that workers are paid well, free to spend on non-basic commodities, and save for their future will facilitate the creation of a strong domestic market and large savings base which domestic banks can capitalize. Higher wages will increase capital-intensiveness of firms, increasing their productivity in the process. Rising corporate income will mean larger revenues for the government, which will pummel it back as welfare and unemployment support.

Let us elaborate.

Transforming the 'Southeast Asian Sea' into a 'Shared Regional Area of Essential Commons' by Rasti Delizo

Hence, the Southeast Asian Sea’s strategic mineral and aquatic resources cannot be claimed by just a few and in the name of ancient empires that have long ago disappeared into the library of world history.  In the context of today’s global environmental realities, the Southeast Asian Sea must by now be claimed by the many and in the name of a 21st Century world order shared by all of humankind. - Rasti Delizo

TRANSFORMING THE ‘SOUTHEAST ASIAN SEA’ INTO A 
‘SHARED REGIONAL AREA OF ESSENTIAL COMMONS’

RASTI DELIZO*
12 April 2012

The regionally contentious body of water predominantly known throughout Asia as the South China Sea can yet be transformed into a more mutually beneficial regional asset.  Geographically located in Southeastern Asia, this vastly huge oceanic area is a historically recognized maritime route which expediently acts as a gateway between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.  Many governments currently acknowledge its vital importance due to a vast abundance of natural undersea resources with potential wells of alternative energy supplies.  And for obvious strategic reasons, this prime bio-diversity spot has long become a regional magnet of attraction to various littoral states and major powers surrounding the area.

As such, China, Taiwan and four ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member-countries are now contesting certain sections of the South China Sea for these same reasons. These territorial claims have characteristically alerted other powerful states and multilateral organizations to the pending disputes as they certainly have the potential to spark off a future military conflict.  Since such a war could further conflagrate the entire Asia-Pacific region and inevitably become a dangerous global threat, this overarching regional issue continues to remain a top priority question begging for an immediate solution.

Uganda be kiddin' me*: Kony 2012, Ugandan Oil Boom, and America's Next Bin Laden

A parody pic by a hadtodoittoo posted here.

Kony 2012 has been perceived by many as one of the most effective advocacy strategies in the recent age of viral memes and social networks. Created and launched by the non-government organization Invisible Children, it has a simple objective: to stop and arrest international criminal Josephy Kony of the Lord's Resistance Army in any way possible. It's strategy is simple as well: get as much international support to push the United States (and possibly other states - they are very ambiguous on this) to do its usual thing of saving the world. But an originally all-American movement, the mobilization of support will naturally target the US populace. It's tactic: a year long spectacle of raising awareness, selling campaign paraphernalia, lobbying and leveraging  important personalities, and finally, direct action on April - seemingly riding the fad of creative protest actions sparked by of Occupy Wall Street and the Tea Party.

Unfortunately for them, Kony 2012, which gained considerable success in its air war - million hits for its videos, #stopkony trending globally, and sparking a global discourse on Africa and the existence of Christian fundamentalist militias (not unlike that created by the joint US and Philippines forces during the late 1980s, but more on this later) - backfired. Various criticisms had been hurled, from the mild accusation of oversimplification and misplaced attention, to moderate criticism on its failure to highlight and expose Uganda's poor human rights record - in effect condoning or even supporting it, to a vicious assault on Invisible Children itself - exposing the fact that very little actually goes to Uganda and African nations. Then there is also its push for US intervention, which flies in the face of sovereignty issues and the reputation itself of the US military. There are more comprehensive criticisms here, here, and here. (All of these prompted Invisible Children to issue a reply here).

Invisible children graphic. Click image to see it.
Picture from the Guardian.

But, as we know, the issues can can still go deeper. For instance, we can think about how the Kony 2012 phenomenon is placed in the current political milieu. After all, Joseph Kony, the repressive Ugandan state, as well as "US-as-the-policeman-of-the-world" concept didn't emerge in a vacuum. There is always a historical and political context behind any phenomenon.

One of my most insightful friends Primo Morillo had this hypothesis about Kony 2012 and Uganda, a hypothesis I want to share with you. He proposed that Kony 2012's timing is impeccable - in fact, it coincides with the fact that there is recently discovered oil in Uganda. Verifying this assertion, I found out that there are indeed recent interests on a "Ugandan oil boom". This is what prompted me to write this post - which would center on Kony 2012 and the probable US interest on Ugandan oil amid rising oil prices, and its more important implication - that the US establishment is to create pretext for its petro-imperialism, similar to the demonization of Muammar Gaddafi. But I go further and propose that Kony is America's new Osama Bin Laden, meant to justify military intervention in resource-rich Africa.

Santiago's Bar Exam Result, UP Law Education, and the "Top Ten" Fetish

Recently, Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago was target of various attacks on her supposedly arrogance towards Atty. Vitaliano Aguirre of the prosecution team during the Corona impeachment trial. If we have been monitoring news, we may have already heard that Aguirre was cited in contempt after covering his ears during a tirade by Sen. Santiago, which included calling the prosecution team "gago" (stupid) for withdrawing the five of the eight articles of impeachment. While criticized for its perceived non-stellar performance, the "gago" (stupid) comment hurled to the prosecution was deemed by many as uncalled for, which may seemed to have given Aguirre the moral reason to reciprocate. Knowing Filipino's behavior towards perceived arrogance, Santiago must have already expected to be admonished publicly, even if she is simply acting out her extreme intolerance to what she perceives as incompetence.

But what troubled me is the propaganda pic below circulating in Facebook, apparently designed as an offshoot of the release of the 2011 Bar Exam results. It capitalizes on the fact that Aguirre got a higher score than Santiago:

An attack against Sen. Santiago circulating in Facebook. The one above is
circulated by a certain Ma. Stella A. Vizmanos 

The argument of the propaganda pic suffers from many loopholes. For one, difficulty in bar exams varies across the years. Compare, for instance, the 2001 and 2002 bar exams passing rate: 32.89% and 19.68% respectively. But let us leave it at that and focus on the essence: I don't think we should be equating achievement with grades, in law and in any other field. It gives a false impression to lawyers (as well as other students) that getting a high mark in the bar (or in any other exam) makes you a good lawyer (or professional). For all that people rant on her bar grades, Miriam is a recognized international and constitutional law expert. Prior to becoming elected in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), she was in fact a legal officer of the United Nations High Commission on Refugees.

This fetish on Bar Exam results as a barometer for a lawyer puts into light another issue, that no student from the University of the Philippines College of Law was able to make it to top ten in the recent Bar Examinations Result.

Corona and the Numbers Game (by Emmanuel Hizon)

Photo by Matikas Santos/INQUIRER.net photo.

Apologists of impeached Chief Justice Renato Corona asserted that they are not only winning the battle in the impeachment court but also the one that is being waged in the streets. This assertion stemmed from an alleged 7,000-strong pro-Corona mobilization that was held not long ago in front of the Supreme Court, and of late, a mammoth evangelical rally held at Luneta, which they said outnumbered all previous anti-Corona mobilizations organized by the different anti-corruption groups.

Minority action, one-dimensional

At first glance, the “big” pro-Corona rally held last February 8, 2012 in Padre Faura, which defenders of the chief justice boast and brand as the "true voice" of the public is somewhat impressive. But in retrospect, one can see that the said event is the action of a minority. Of course, the action of a minority is not necessarily wrong, that is not the intention of this piece. Rather, it wants to deconstruct the perception that is being peddled by Corona's spin masters that they are winning the numbers game in the streets.

Games, Politics, and Society

Should Syria continue its costly war against terrorism? Did Myanmar's junta make a good choice in letting Aung San Suu Kyi campaign for a parliament seat? Why did Ahmadinejad decide to disclose new nuclear projects amid apparent opposition of the US and NATO countries on its nuclear program? How will the Philippine Senate vote on the impeachment case of the Supreme Court Justice given the President's obvious preference?

The political arena is defined by such decisions on conflict and cooperation involving civilians, political parties, religious groups, social movements, corporations, and even revolutionary groups. The process with which one can arrive at a rational, well-thought-of decision in politics seems to be overwhelming, given the complexity of individual and social behavior. Several variables have to analyzed, and possible scenarios have to be completely scanned. To make things worse, the cost of wrong decisions can take a toll on lives, properties, and positioning. With all the complexity involved, is there a tool one can actually use to make political decision making easier?

Here comes "Game Theory" - a subfield in applied mathematics that deals with modelling "strategic situations" i.e. situations wherein an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others (Myerson, 1991). Emerging from the field of economics, game theory has been increasingly applied to analysis of political situations - gaining prominence during the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union.

But game theory's application is not just limited in political science or economics. In fact, social morality and ethics may have evolved from social conventions that are, as will be explained later, "Nash equilibrium". For starters, check out the Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal (SMBC) comic below:

  

That DVD Incident, Intellectual Property, and Innovation

This photo is being circulated in Facebook
 by a certain Jerry Ocampo. It may be part of
the systematic demolition job vs. Llamas.

This is related to an earlier article: http://bitly.com/plagiarismculture.

We all know that Presidential Political Adviser and known socialist Ronald Llamas is again the subject of another controversy – that of being caught buying “pirated” DVDs. We all know that he apologized (for putting the government in an awkward position) and that President Aquino announced that he will stay in office despite the protestations of the noisier members of the chattering class. But amid the brouhaha, the question of substance remains unasked: what should be our government’s policy on intellectual property?

Here is an unsolicited advice: the government can continue with the rhetoric against intellectual property “theft”, but it should be lax in its implementation. It’s simple: placate the international community by token efforts to address “piracy” (and even this can be staged – just set up a DVD booth and pretend to smash it in front of international TV) while letting the underground economy persist, providing millions of unemployed Filipinos a lifeline while keeping digital entertainment cheap.

Persisting Problems on the link between Macroeconomics and Microeconomics

Permanent link: http://bit.ly/microfoundations
As a requirement for our macroeconomics class, Dr. Dante Canlas asked us to submit a survey paper on a macroeconomic issue of our choice. I especially took interest on the approach of modern macroeconomics based on so-called "microfoundations" - microeconomic assumptions used to explain aggregate phenomenon. New classical economists see this as the final bridging of macroeconomics and microeconomics, spurring hopes of a single economic theory that would explain both the individual and aggregate economic phenomena. (note how this parallels physicists' dream of uniting large-scale relativistic physics with quantum mechanics). This spurred an orientation in economic research and pedagogy characterized by complex mathematical models capturing "deep" parameters in taste, technology, and expectations.

Recently, the microfoundations approach came under attack after models with "deep" microeconomic parameters supposedly failed to predict and recommend effective policy recommendations to mitigate the current global economic crisis. Even recent Nobel Laureate Thomas Sargent - one of the pioneers of modern macro - is under fire. Why this is so - as well as earlier, almost forgotten challenges to the microfoundations approach - is the subject of the survey paper I submitted. Read the abstract and full text below:

Abstract

The history of economics, for the most part, has been bifurcated between the study of individual economic decisions (microeconomics) and the aggregate economic phenomena (macroeconomics). The attempt to marry the two, via incorporating “microeconomic foundations” or “microfoundations” to explanations for macroeconomic observations and predictions, has so far taken sway a majority of mainstream economists with the failure of Keynesian models to accurately predict aggregate behavior in the presence of government policy. Robert Lucas Jr. posited that people form “rational expectations” of government policy and act so as to render forecasts unstable.

However, there are some persisting theoretical and empirical challenges on this research direction – the empirical instability of macro-models which incorporated microfoundations, the Sonnenschein–Mantel–Debreu result which may spell the theoretical dead end to economic aggregation, the still unresolved Cambridge capital controversies started by the reswitching argument by Italian economist Pierro Sraffa and American economist Joan Robinson in the 1960s, and the missing “representative consumer or firm” that can take into account the behavior of the aggregate. These challenges give the idea that aggregate economic behavior is almost impossible to deduce from microeconomic behavior of agents. Post-Keynesianism – which asserts that long-term expectations are largely determined by non-economic, psychological processes exogenous to the model – is posited as a possible way forward.

To read full text, click: