The World according to Friedman: 2012 Geopolitical Analysis on US, China, Germany, and Japan

Clearly, for geopolitics, 2012 did not signal the world's end, but only its tumultuous continuity. Major economies of the world had seen their governments either replaced or reestablished - Barack Obama in the United States, Xi Jinping in People's Republic of China, and Shinzō Abe in Japan. Newsweek issued its last print issue, with the iconic hashtag sounding the death knell to non-online publishing. European Union remains to be stuck in a debilitating debt crisis. The UN General Assembly approves a motion granting Palestine non-member observer state status.

From here.

As we close this year, it is but fitting to listen to one of the world's best geopolitical minds  as he speaks on the state of the world, as well as the history and future of US, China, Germany and Japan. Let us all take a peek at the important insights George Friedman of Stratfor shared to us in 2012: 

The State of the World: A Framework 
By George Friedman | February 21, 2012

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a new series on the national strategies of today's global power and other regional powers. This installment establishes a framework for understating the current state of the world. 

The evolution of geopolitics is cyclical. Powers rise, fall and shift. Changes occur in every generation in an unending ballet. However, the period between 1989 and 1991 was unique in that a long cycle of human history spanning hundreds of years ended, and with it a shorter cycle also came to a close. The world is still reverberating from the events of that period.

On Dec. 25, 1991, an epoch ended. On that day the Soviet Union collapsed, and for the first time in almost 500 years no European power was a global power, meaning no European state integrated economic, military and political power on a global scale. What began in 1492 with Europe smashing its way into the world and creating a global imperial system had ended. For five centuries, one European power or another had dominated the world, whether Portugal, Spain, France, England or the Soviet Union. Even the lesser European powers at the time had some degree of global influence.

Transforming the 'Southeast Asian Sea' into a 'Shared Regional Area of Essential Commons' by Rasti Delizo

Hence, the Southeast Asian Sea’s strategic mineral and aquatic resources cannot be claimed by just a few and in the name of ancient empires that have long ago disappeared into the library of world history.  In the context of today’s global environmental realities, the Southeast Asian Sea must by now be claimed by the many and in the name of a 21st Century world order shared by all of humankind. - Rasti Delizo

TRANSFORMING THE ‘SOUTHEAST ASIAN SEA’ INTO A 
‘SHARED REGIONAL AREA OF ESSENTIAL COMMONS’

RASTI DELIZO*
12 April 2012

The regionally contentious body of water predominantly known throughout Asia as the South China Sea can yet be transformed into a more mutually beneficial regional asset.  Geographically located in Southeastern Asia, this vastly huge oceanic area is a historically recognized maritime route which expediently acts as a gateway between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.  Many governments currently acknowledge its vital importance due to a vast abundance of natural undersea resources with potential wells of alternative energy supplies.  And for obvious strategic reasons, this prime bio-diversity spot has long become a regional magnet of attraction to various littoral states and major powers surrounding the area.

As such, China, Taiwan and four ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member-countries are now contesting certain sections of the South China Sea for these same reasons. These territorial claims have characteristically alerted other powerful states and multilateral organizations to the pending disputes as they certainly have the potential to spark off a future military conflict.  Since such a war could further conflagrate the entire Asia-Pacific region and inevitably become a dangerous global threat, this overarching regional issue continues to remain a top priority question begging for an immediate solution.

Debt as Modern Slavery (Part 1 of 3)

Part I – Currency Wars, Chimerican Crisis, and the Debt-based Monetary System

By James Matthew B. Miraflor

Presented to the Southeast Asia Regional Socialism Conference of Partido Lakas ng Masa, together with Transform Asia Gender and Labor Institute, November 27, 2010, College of Social Work and Development (CSWCD), University of the Philippines Diliman

Revised on November 29 and 30, 2010

Warm revolutionary greetings to all of our comrades here. I was tasked to discuss on the debt and the financial crisis. As we know, this is a very difficult topic to talk about, as it is related to the most complicated inventions in human history – banking, monetary system, fiscal policy, and investment practices, among others. No one can pretend that the whole thing is already understood completely, for even its inventors have often been labeled as not knowing what they are doing.

Thus, to make things simpler, it is good to begin with a discussion of the current updates in the global financial and monetary practice. Right now, the United States is conducting what it calls as “quantitative easing” (QE). Simply put, this is simply printing dollars out of nowhere. The Federal Reserve already printed $600 billion to buy securities from the US Treasury. The printing press has now become, to paraphrase Ben Bernanke, the secret weapon of the American economy. This devalues dollar vis-à-vis other currencies, making exports to the US more expensive and favoring domestic producers’ access to US market.

Seen as a form of subtle protectionism and as “revenge” over China’s supposedly “undervalued” currency, it had the effect of depreciating the value of dollar worldwide. For export-oriented economies of the world, this may spell ruination, as it means that American exports will be relatively cheaper. This may have the effect of import-substitution in the United States as cheaper American goods replace goods exported by the manufacturing giants like China and Germany to the US market. In the Philippines, this had the effect of shrinking the relative value of the dollars migrant workers send back home, and compromising Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) companies which earn in dollars.

During the conference. University of the Philippines Diliman - CSWCD.

But beyond QE’s immediate effects lie a more structural cause. It is this cause, which will later be called as debt-based monetary system, that I will attempt to discuss in this paper. Knowing what the systemic impulse behind the production of money is brings us closer to a good explanation on the current phase of the finance capitalist system the whole world is now in. It also allows us to understand alternatives which we may have to implement as a global community if we are to avert financial disaster and transition to socialist alternatives.