Nowhere to Hide

Dr. Michael Lim Mah-Hui, an internationally-known expert and speaker on international finance, has recently come to the Philippines to talk about his latest book, "Nowhere to Hide: The Great Financial Crisis and Challenges for Asia" which combines the disciplines of economics, finance, sociology and politics to analyze the consequences and challenges of the crisis and propose that its causes be understood at three inter-related levels - the level of theory and ideology, the level of financial  industry practices and malpractices; and finally the level of  structural imbalances in the international economy.

I met and conversed with Dr. Lim during the “Understanding the Financial Markets” forum by Jubilee South - Asia Pacific Movement on Debt and Development (JS-APMDD) in cooperation with South Asia Alliance for Poverty Eradication (SAAPE) and hosted by Monitoring Sustainability of Globalization (MSN) Malaysia. This was held from April 14 to 17, 2009 at the NUBE Training Centre, Port Dickson, Malaysia. We later corresponded through email on statistical distributions and that how financial analysts and statisticians in the US blindly follow the normal (or the Gaussian) distribution curve in the computation of financial risk when they actually can test - using "goodness of fit" tests such as the Pearson's chi-square test or the Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric test- the probability distribution curves of historical data.

I highly recommend that you buy this book. The financial crisis is still as relevant as ever with the collapse of Greece and possible fallout for Asian markets.

The Structure of Crisis, the Crisis of Structure

Last year, I was invited as one of the speakers during the "Waging Peace in the Philippines Conference of 2009 - Advancing a Citizen’s Peace Agenda in 2010 and Beyond" held at the Social Development Complex Audio Visual Conference Center, Ateneo de Manila University on December 7-8, 2009. I specifically attended and participated on the plenary on Significant Issues for Peace in 2010, with Atty. Marvic Leonen, Dean of the UP College of Law, as my co-speaker.

The organization I was representing, Freedom from Debt Coalition (FDC), was supposed to present on Climate Change, Global and National Crisis. Using existing data we culled from several government sources and presentations, this is the presentation I used. It begins with the then hot issue of Maguindanao massacre and then proceeds to discuss the structural causes of the confluence of crises we are facing. Check this out as a break from the optimism of the incoming Noynoy era:

The Structure Of Crisis, The Crisis of Structure

View more presentations from jmmiraflor.

This is also to serve as a counterpoint on the 7.3% growth pronouncement earlier by the Palace, which has largely been criticized as merely base effect of the manufacturing drop at the peak of the global crisis. But just some facts and observations to add to the point:

• It is an election year, one of the most expensive in fact in the history of the Philippines. While consumption indeed has been high, the net transfer will largely been from politicians (which means from the government, for how they became ultra-rich is already, a little too obvious) to the TV networks, or more likely, to Chinese companies which produced all those ground-war stuff (campaign paraphernalia, posters, etc.). The amount of redistribution (via vote-buying, etc.) has largely been limited by the phenomenon of a mass media-driven campaign. So while GDP may indeed have been boosted by transfers of wealth, it is merely one class taking money away from one pocket and putting it to another.
• This is not a new pronouncement. Curiously, the 7.3-percent figure already came up two years ago. But if this quarters growth is largely base effect, the growth then was largely spending-led, with National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) stating that among the components of the GDP by expenditure share, it is Government Expenditure Consumption (GCE) which grew the highest, by 10.0% from 2006-2007 - reflective of substantial increase in the proposed national budget from P1.045 trillion in 2006 to P1.126 trillion in 2007, an increase of P81.31 billion or 7.8%.

Comments on the G20 Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy

I was interviewed by Judith Prescott of Radio France Internationale regarding the social movements' reaction on the G20 summit, particularly on the Philippines. It was on the context of the Freedom from Debt Coalition (FDC) mobilization on the US embassy (see details here, and RFI's article here) in response to the global call to action against the summit.

Here is the interview:

Comment: James Miraflor of Freedom from Debt coalition in Manila

15/11/2008 by Judith Prescott

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, right, chats with his Finance Minister Jim Flaherty as Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown chats with aides prior to Saturday's start of the G-20 summit on the world economy in Washington. (Tom Hanson/Canadian Press)


Here is the article:

World financial crisis
Finance summit to discuss boosting world economy
http://www.radiofranceinternationale.fr/actuen/articles/107/article_2147.asp

Article published on the 2008-11-15
Latest update 2008-11-15 15:24 TU

Sarkozy (L) Bush (C) and Barroso at the White House
(Photo: Reuters)

Leaders of the G20 group of the world's dominant economies meet in Washington on Saturday to discuss how to tackle the world economic crisis. They are expected to commit themselves to stimulate their economies and tighten up financial regulation but discussions are expected to continue for several months.