The World according to Friedman: 2012 Geopolitical Analysis on US, China, Germany, and Japan

Clearly, for geopolitics, 2012 did not signal the world's end, but only its tumultuous continuity. Major economies of the world had seen their governments either replaced or reestablished - Barack Obama in the United States, Xi Jinping in People's Republic of China, and Shinzō Abe in Japan. Newsweek issued its last print issue, with the iconic hashtag sounding the death knell to non-online publishing. European Union remains to be stuck in a debilitating debt crisis. The UN General Assembly approves a motion granting Palestine non-member observer state status.

From here.

As we close this year, it is but fitting to listen to one of the world's best geopolitical minds  as he speaks on the state of the world, as well as the history and future of US, China, Germany and Japan. Let us all take a peek at the important insights George Friedman of Stratfor shared to us in 2012: 

The State of the World: A Framework 
By George Friedman | February 21, 2012

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a new series on the national strategies of today's global power and other regional powers. This installment establishes a framework for understating the current state of the world. 

The evolution of geopolitics is cyclical. Powers rise, fall and shift. Changes occur in every generation in an unending ballet. However, the period between 1989 and 1991 was unique in that a long cycle of human history spanning hundreds of years ended, and with it a shorter cycle also came to a close. The world is still reverberating from the events of that period.

On Dec. 25, 1991, an epoch ended. On that day the Soviet Union collapsed, and for the first time in almost 500 years no European power was a global power, meaning no European state integrated economic, military and political power on a global scale. What began in 1492 with Europe smashing its way into the world and creating a global imperial system had ended. For five centuries, one European power or another had dominated the world, whether Portugal, Spain, France, England or the Soviet Union. Even the lesser European powers at the time had some degree of global influence.

Transforming the 'Southeast Asian Sea' into a 'Shared Regional Area of Essential Commons' by Rasti Delizo

Hence, the Southeast Asian Sea’s strategic mineral and aquatic resources cannot be claimed by just a few and in the name of ancient empires that have long ago disappeared into the library of world history.  In the context of today’s global environmental realities, the Southeast Asian Sea must by now be claimed by the many and in the name of a 21st Century world order shared by all of humankind. - Rasti Delizo

TRANSFORMING THE ‘SOUTHEAST ASIAN SEA’ INTO A 
‘SHARED REGIONAL AREA OF ESSENTIAL COMMONS’

RASTI DELIZO*
12 April 2012

The regionally contentious body of water predominantly known throughout Asia as the South China Sea can yet be transformed into a more mutually beneficial regional asset.  Geographically located in Southeastern Asia, this vastly huge oceanic area is a historically recognized maritime route which expediently acts as a gateway between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.  Many governments currently acknowledge its vital importance due to a vast abundance of natural undersea resources with potential wells of alternative energy supplies.  And for obvious strategic reasons, this prime bio-diversity spot has long become a regional magnet of attraction to various littoral states and major powers surrounding the area.

As such, China, Taiwan and four ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) member-countries are now contesting certain sections of the South China Sea for these same reasons. These territorial claims have characteristically alerted other powerful states and multilateral organizations to the pending disputes as they certainly have the potential to spark off a future military conflict.  Since such a war could further conflagrate the entire Asia-Pacific region and inevitably become a dangerous global threat, this overarching regional issue continues to remain a top priority question begging for an immediate solution.

Experiences of the South in Chinese Lending

At the height of ZTE-NBN scandal, we are forced to review the extent of People's Republic of China's (PRC) influence in the affairs of the nation and of the economy. The big picture tells us that we are not the only one, that we are but a piece

Here is the presentation I used in the Debt and International Financial Institutions (IFIs) cluster in the 7th Asia-Europe People’s Forum (AEPF 7) held from 13-15 October, 2008 in Beijing, China. I attempted to give to preview of the link between China's geopolitical strategy, lending (particularly of CEXIM), and domestic elite politics.

Experiences of the South in Chinese Lending

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