The World according to Friedman: 2012 Geopolitical Analysis on US, China, Germany, and Japan

Clearly, for geopolitics, 2012 did not signal the world's end, but only its tumultuous continuity. Major economies of the world had seen their governments either replaced or reestablished - Barack Obama in the United States, Xi Jinping in People's Republic of China, and Shinzō Abe in Japan. Newsweek issued its last print issue, with the iconic hashtag sounding the death knell to non-online publishing. European Union remains to be stuck in a debilitating debt crisis. The UN General Assembly approves a motion granting Palestine non-member observer state status.

From here.

As we close this year, it is but fitting to listen to one of the world's best geopolitical minds  as he speaks on the state of the world, as well as the history and future of US, China, Germany and Japan. Let us all take a peek at the important insights George Friedman of Stratfor shared to us in 2012: 

The State of the World: A Framework 
By George Friedman | February 21, 2012

Editor's Note: This is the first installment of a new series on the national strategies of today's global power and other regional powers. This installment establishes a framework for understating the current state of the world. 

The evolution of geopolitics is cyclical. Powers rise, fall and shift. Changes occur in every generation in an unending ballet. However, the period between 1989 and 1991 was unique in that a long cycle of human history spanning hundreds of years ended, and with it a shorter cycle also came to a close. The world is still reverberating from the events of that period.

On Dec. 25, 1991, an epoch ended. On that day the Soviet Union collapsed, and for the first time in almost 500 years no European power was a global power, meaning no European state integrated economic, military and political power on a global scale. What began in 1492 with Europe smashing its way into the world and creating a global imperial system had ended. For five centuries, one European power or another had dominated the world, whether Portugal, Spain, France, England or the Soviet Union. Even the lesser European powers at the time had some degree of global influence.

Responding to a Planetary Emergency: Global Partnerships and Global Struggles

It is not just because it is 2012. The threat of radical climactic change is now not just a mere scientific proposition. The world's worst polluter, the United States, was the last victim of a severe weather disturbance - hurricane Sandy a.ka. the "Frankenstorm" - which battered New Jersey and several other states in the East Coast. Ironically, it came just weeks after defeated Republic presidential candidate Mitt Romney mocked President-elect Barack Obama for promising "to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet".

The UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP) 18 in Doha, Qatar on the last week of November to the first week of December this year is seen by some as our final hope to save world - our final hope to deeply cut global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent catastrophic global warming. As such, movements around the world prepared as coordinated "Global Week of Action" this week to reiterate its message to the governments of the world - in particular, to the recalcitrant governments of the North.

It is thus fortunate that I was invited to speak on "MDG 8- Global Partnership" for the “MDG Youth Training Program” being organized by MDG Achievement Fund in partnership with UP-NCPAG Student Government. The training seeks to educate university students on the MDGs and provide them an opportunity to draft an action plan for the MDGs. This is a good opportunity to encourage our students to join the Global Week of Action and champion an effective global partnership to stop climate change.

Here is my presentation:

Responding to Planetary Emergencies through Global Partnership, Global Struggles: Climate Justice and MDG 8 on Prezi

You may also click here to download. The presentation is derived from the materials of Jubilee South - Asia Pacific Movement on Debt and Development.

The 15th Petition for a TRO - Netizens vs. the Cybercrime Prevention Act

Today, the Philippine Internet Freedom  Alliance (PIFA.ph) filed a petition at the Supreme Court (SC) for a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) on Republic Act 10175 or the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012. Below is an outline of the substantive arguments in the Petition:

I. RA 10175 violates the right to privacy and due process (Sec 16, 19).
II. RA 10175 violates the right to equal protection (Sec 6, Sec 19).
III. RA 10175 violates the right to free speech (Sec 19, Sec 4(c)).
IV. RA 10175 violates jus cogens norms of international law (Sec 4(c)).
V. RA 10175 is an ex post facto law.
VI. RA 10175 imposes cruel and unusual punishment.

See the full petition below:

Petitioners are : PHILIPPINE INTERNET FREEDOM ALLIANCE, composed of DAKILA-PHILIPPINE COLLECTIVE FOR MODERN HEROISM, represented by Leni Velasco, PARTIDO LAKAS NG MASA, represented by Cesar S. Melencio, FRANCIS EUSTON R. ACERO, MARLON ANTHONY ROMASANTA TONSON, TEODORO A. CASIÑO, NOEMI LARDIZABAL-DADO, IMELDA MORALES, JAMES MATTHEW B. MIRAFLOR, JUAN G.M. RAGRAGIO, MARIA FATIMA A. VILLENA, MEDARDO M. MANRIQUE, JR., LAUREN DADO, MARCO VITTORIA TOBIAS SUMAYAO, IRENE CHIA, ERASTUS NOEL T. DELIZO, CRISTINA SARAH E. OSORIO, ROMEO FACTOLERIN, NAOMI L. TUPAS, KENNETH KENG, ANA ALEXANDRA C. CASTRO

Petition

In the Philippines, the primacy and high esteem accorded freedom of expression is a fundamental postulate of our constitutional system. This right was elevated to constitutional status in the 1935, the 1973 and the 1987 Constitutions, reflecting our own lesson of history, both political and legal, that freedom of speech is an indispensable condition for nearly every other form of freedom. Moreover, our history shows that the struggle to protect the freedom of speech, expression and the press was, at bottom, the struggle for the indispensable preconditions for the exercise of other freedoms. For it is only when the people have unbridled access to information and the press that they will be capable of rendering enlightened judgments. In the oft-quoted words of Thomas Jefferson, we cannot both be free and ignorant.

- Mr. Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno, speaking for the Court en banc, in Chavez v. Gonzales and National Telecommunications Commission, G.R. No. 168338, February 15, 2008.

Log-out. Hit the Streets. Fight for Internet Freedom.

The Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012 or Republic Act No. 10175 threatens our basic rights and freedoms. This law works against ordinary netizens -- bloggers, freelance writers, website owners, social network users. etc. -- and disregards, among other things, our right to privacy and freedom of expression.

To safeguard these rights and freedoms, we, the members of the Philippine Internet Freedom Alliance (PIFA), ask you to leave the virtual world for a while, and join BLACK TUESDAY, a SILENT and PEACEFUL PROTEST against CYBER MARTIAL LAW.

• At 10 am, we assemble at the Padre Faura entrance of Robinsons Manila.
• At 10:30 am, with our central banner saying STOP CYBER MARTIAL LAW and our mouths covered with black tape (to be provided by PIFA), we march to the Supreme Court. Everyone is encouraged (but not required) to bring black cartolina or placards/signs that are all black, symbolizing the silencing of free speech.
• At 11 am, we read our Unity Statement in front of the Supreme Court to let the three branches of our government and the Filipino nation know why this law should be stopped.

Join us netizens, and STOP CYBER MARTIAL LAW !!!

For those who cannot join the demonstration on Tuesday, you can show your solidarity by taking part in the online BLACKOUT -- you can either take your site offline or display on your web sites and social media accounts the BLACK 'STOP CYBER MARTIAL LAW' digital banners / images found at the PIFA Facebook Group Album: https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=oa.320745244691388&type=1

For inquiries, please text Kenneth Keng at 0915 790 00 18, or send him a Facebook private message at https://www.facebook.com/kenneth.keng.3 .

You don't believe us? Check this out:

Lean Alejandro (1960-87)

"The socialist man must know how to compute the distance of the stars, how to differentiate a fish from a shark, a mammal from a reptile. He must know how to distill wine into liquor and how to arrive at e=mc^2. He must know how to cook bacon, butcher a pig and roast a lamb. He must be capable of leading armies into battle. He must know how to follow orders, give orders and he must know when to disobey them. He must be able at debate, at lobbying, at open struggle. He must know how to analyze difficult political situations, how to get out of one and how to convince others that they must do the same. He must know how to sail a ship, dig a latrine, construct a pigsty, wash clothes, wash dishes, plan an offensive, plan a retreat, mix martinis, drink martinis, differentiate brandy from whisky, keep quiet, participate, take care of babies, manage a state bureaucracy, soothe pain, comfort the sorrowful, maintain his composure in hot water, when to watch, when to participate, repair appliances, maintain a car, purge revisionists, ride a horse, run from a bull, swim, play tennis, drown gracefully, sink with his ship with honor along with the mice, discuss Mao, debunk Zinoviev, ridicule Stalin, appreciate a beehive, raise chickens, cook chickens, play boogle (respectably), correctly read Mabini, recruit members into the movement, motivate members to struggle, host a party, play at least one musical instrument, be critical, self-critical, honest... The socialist man is the total man. Specialization is for ants." - Lean Alejandro (July 10, 1960 - September 19, 1987)

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Remembering Lean
Antoinette R. Raquiza
19 September 2012
Club Filipino

It is a pleasure to be with old friends and was a real pleasure to read through many of the essays that the Foundation has compiled for the anthology.  A few of the tributes were written fairly recently—but the vast majority of the 36 short pieces were written almost 25 years ago, when some of Lean’s good friends, still mourning his death, were moved to set pen to paper and commemorate their fallen comrade.

Why Change the World?

"In the end, the primary source of this deep anthropological crisis is the thinking that human beings, at their very core, are disconnected from amongst themselves and the rest of its reality."

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Purpose

Don Quixote. Pablo Picasso. 1955

Since humanity appeared in the face of the earth, the earth underwent a massive transformation like any other that happened to it for over four billion years. Humanity’s curiosity transformed rocks to highways, wood to intricate sculptures, minerals to trains, ships, computers and power grids. The emergent order originally imposed by billions of years of natural selection has been replaced by an artificial, intelligent order imposed by the human mind.

A human being’s instinct is to know, to test, to explore. Whether exploring the seas and under it, or staring at the skies and beyond it into space, or traveling deep into tropical forests in order to retrieve an herb (which chemical components one can later discover by observing its cells in a microscope), or detailing the anatomical features of our bodies, or testing the limits of artistic expressions – humanity’s impulse is always to increase its understanding and discover the profundity of the universe, the human psyche, and the subconscious.

For this purpose, we develop tools to one, increase our time spent learning and exploring by efficiently producing what we need for convenient survival (e.g. food, shelter, and leisure); and two, increase our capacity to learn by developing instrumentation and computational tools to aid our process of learning (e.g. microscope, personal computers, the paintbrush). Even as we are connected to the universe, we inevitably transform it in our search for meaning and knowledge. Whether our actuations destroy or preserve the earth, for instance, is subordinated to our unquenchable thirst for understanding and its prerequisite – convenient and harmonious survival. We developed genetic engineering to mass manufacture food; upon learning that it may have adverse effects on health, we also further developed past knowledge on organic agriculture to produce healthy food. We developed hydrocarbons that fuel our four-stroke engines; we also developed ecological restoration techniques to mitigate effects of global warming.