Climate change is one of the "great pessimisms" of the 21st century, to quote
Matt Ridley - author of the "
The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves (2010). Indeed, it is the primary threat to humanity's vision of a bright future of technological prosperity. And for very good reasons. According to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a global average temperature increase of 1–4°C (relative to 1990–2000) may result to partial de-glaciation of the
Greenland ice sheet. Add to this the possible contribution of partial de-glaciation of the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level may rise by 4 to 6 meters (13 to 20 ft) or more, with disastrous consequences to small island states and coastal settlements.
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| A farmer takes water form a dried-up pond to water his vegetable field on the outskirts of Yingtan, Jiangxi province. Photograph: Stringer Shanghai/Reuters. From here. |
Moreover, weather patterns across the globe will be disturbed, radically changing livelihoods and economic activities. A particular climate-induced economic change we ought to be watching is the transition of some developed countries from having a humid continental or tundra climate to tropical or rain-forest, simultaneous with desertification in agriculturally-rich developing countries. This is already happening now, as climate change render previously agriculturally-viable lands to lands not fit for horticulture.
This gave me an insight. While it is true that this will have debilitating effects on the economies of the South, I can also see an economic opportunity which we developing countries can maximize - at least in the medium-run.
